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For Florida's sake, let's talk as if Alabama loses this game to Texas A&M and what it likely does to Florida. First off, for the sake of discussion, I'm going to set some assumptions here. If you're not interested in looking ahead, don't bother reading.
* Working with the assumption Florida wins out and is 11-1 and does not play in the SEC title game.
* Alabama and Georgia meet in SEC title game as one-loss teams.
* Winner likely goes the Sugar Bowl, not the BCS title game.
* If that happens, a one-loss Florida team likely falls ahead of Texas A&M, LSU and Alabama/Georgia in the BCS pecking order.
* So, theoretically Florida would probably be a BCS at-large selection, going to another BCS bowl.
Anyone disagree with that, or am I thinking clearly? If I am right on that, which BCS bowl is Florida most likely to go to in that scenario?
Again, a lot of assumptions, but just for discussion's sake.
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Hopefully we get an at large bid. I agree though, if Bama loses, they will go to the Sugar Bowl with a win over UGA.
"Who was your source? Church mice in here....." - Coach Muschamp
I believe if Bama loses this game and wins the sec title and we win out, we will go to a bcs bowl. Probably fiesta I think.
Sugar and Orange bowl would be out bc of SEC team and FSU(if they win the ACC).
Rose-USC vs Big 10 winner
Sugar- SEC vs at large (ND)
Orange – ACC champion vs. L'ville
Fiesta Bowl – Big 12 champion(OU replacing KState vs. at large(UF)
IIRC Sugar has first at large this year.
This post was edited by Grantparkgator 17 months ago
This is looking like a dumb thread.
OK, I'm safe. I think.
If we win out we get a bcs bowl...georgia or bama fall behind us.
Just stop talking. LOL
Assuming Gators win out --- massive assumption -- Gators finish ahead of whichever SEC 2 loss team loses the SEC championship. That is enough to get an at large bid.
Possibly. Unless sec champ game is extremely close
One flaw in the thinking is that the bowls don't really care about the rankings once the BCS title game is selected. The bowls care about putting together the most attractive matchup to sell tickets, brings fans to their area and for TV. I'm sure I'll get roasted for this, but Florida is simply not that attractive right now. The fan base doesn't travel well right now (or even sell out home games for that matter) and even with a great record and an implied win over FSU, is not an exciting team. A two-loss Texas A&M team, with a win over Alabama and perhaps the most exciting player in the country in Manziel, is a much more attractive sell, especially if the Fiesta Bowl comes into play. The Aggies will travel to Arizona in a big way, will sell many more tickets than Florida, and will be a much more attractive team for TV purposes with a guy who will be in contention for the Heisman as a redshirt freshman. Alabama's loss really hurt Florida's chances, unless the Tide can somehow crawl back into the BCS title game.
could we end up in a FSU rematch in a bcs bowl?
I believe a team has to be in the top 12 of the final rankings to be an at large, USC only shot is to win he PAC 12. The Number 2 in the PAC 12 isn't automatically going to the Rose.
All very good points, Marty.
Order is Fiesta, Sugar Orange this year. Possible scenario ...
NC - 1 Oregon vs 2 Kansas State
Sugar gets SEC Champ Bama, Rose gets B1G Nebraska, Orange gets FSU.
Rose gets first pick (lost Oregon), takes 12-0/11-1 Notre Dame to play Nebraska.
Fiesta goes next (lost KSU), and takes the top team available, Florida.
The Fiesta gets to choose again (following order), taking the 10-2 Oklahoma Sooners.
So, 11-1 Florida vs 10-2 Oklahoma in the Fiesta bowl.
I really don't see UF not going to a BCS bowl if they win out. Would more than likely be a top 4 team. No way they get passed being ranked that high. I know everyone will love A&M this week and probably next but there is also gonna be FIVE other S.E.C. teams ranked ahead of them more than likely come bowl selection time.
I think you make some good points, but in the scenario we are talking about we would be number 4 at worst in the BCS. Has there ever been a 4th place team not get a BCS game in the BCS era? Although I agree with all your points I don't think their all valid. When you compare sec schools traveling I think its got to be a wash. As a whole we all travel well. Sure tamu, LSU, bama etc probably sell out tix but historically you can't say Florida won't either. As far as attractive teams maybe we aren't flashy but that's TV ratings. Does the bowl get a kickback based on ratings? Or mostly on tourism, tickets etc...
If the 11-1 scenario were to play out I believe our fans would travel for a BCS game. Personally I believe the demand would exceed the supply, at least the supply furnished to the University of Florida. Texas A&M would probably sell more on the secondary market, and I grant you, offer a more attractive matchup. However a sellout in some ways is a sellout and does having a more exciting top 10 team outweigh having a top 4 team in the long run. Having said all that, perception is sometimes reality, and the perception that we don't travel well may influence a bowls decision. I agree completely that the Alabama loss hurt our chances for a BCS bowl but I believe a 11-1 record and a high final BCS ranking mitigate that quite a bit.
Georgia could also lose to GT in 2 weeks if they are caught looking forward to the SEC CG....
The beat Bama in the CG
Then Oregon and ND are beat by USC
Boom Roasted.. Gators in the NC
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