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Looking at Florida's BCS prospects

GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- The Florida Gators stayed at No. 6 in the BCS standings following their narrow 27-20 win over Louisiana, but there was some shakeup in front of them that has shifted the team's BCS outlook.

Florida celebrates after its 27-20 victory over Louisiana, which kept the Gators at No. 6 in the BCS standings.

Alabama's loss to Texas A&M over the weekend knocked the Crimson Tide out of the top spot, as it tumbled to No. 4. The Top 5 in the BCS standings this week are as follows: 1) Kansas State, 2) Oregon, 3) Notre Dame, 4) Alabama, 5) Georgia.

So how exactly has Florida's postseason outlook changed?

Well, Alabama's loss takes it out of the driver's seat in the national title race. Before this weekend, the projection was that Alabama would wind up in the BCS Championship Game, leaving a vacant slot for the SEC in the Sugar Bowl.

Assuming Florida had won out (along with Alabama), the Sugar Bowl likely would have taken the Gators to fill in for the Tide in New Orleans. But with Alabama losing, the SEC now stands on the outside looking in in terms of the BCS title race.

Barring upsets of two of the top three teams, it's unlikely Alabama or Georgia, neither of which has a particularly strong computer ranking, gets back into the top two spots. Thus, the winner of the SEC Championship Game will likely play in New Orleans.

With three SEC teams in the current Top 6 of the BCS, though, and LSU, Texas A&M and South Carolina trailing at spots 7, 8 and 9, respectively, the SEC will have at least one more team in a BCS Bowl.

How the national title picture shapes up in the final weeks of the season will determine which at-large spots open up. If Oregon and Kansas State play for all the marbles, there will be at-large spots in each of the four BCS Bowls, including two in the Fiesta Bowl.

The SEC champion plays in the Sugar Bowl, which would rule out a second SEC team from playing there. In Florida's case, the Orange Bowl would also be an unlikely at-large destination if Florida State wins the ACC's automatic bid there in order to avoid a rematch.

Notre Dame would be the best bet to fill in for Oregon in the Rose Bowl assuming it stays in the upper echelon of the BCS standings, leaving Florida's most likely destination if it wins out as the Fiesta Bowl.

But the Gators will have to watch closely what the human voters do with the team after another cupcake game against Jacksonville State next week. A win over Florida State would provide Florida with a solid argument to remain far enough ahead of LSU, Texas A&M and South Carolina to earn the SEC's second BCS bowl bid -- but it could be close enough to make Gators fans nervous.

Florida currently sits at No. 3 in the computer rankings, No. 6 in the USA Today Coaches Poll and No. 7 in the Harris Poll.

Thomas Goldkamp

    • I think TX A&M and Johnny Football might be more attractive to the polyester coats in Glendale than Florida. They would also sell more tickets.

      GboroGator ●

    • GboroGator said...

      I think TX A&M and Johnny Football might be more attractive to the polyester coats in Glendale than Florida. They would also sell more tickets.

      Which is sad. 11-1 and no BCS gm. Would suck.

      gatordmb89 ●

    • Brad Edwards just agreed with me. TAMU to the Fiesta.

      GboroGator ●

    • GboroGator said...

      Brad Edwards just agreed with me. TAMU to the Fiesta.

      Yep. Which is really not rocket science. Lol

      gatordmb89 ●

    • I think right now a lot of the projections are just as much based on people assuming Florida will lose to Florida State as they are Texas A&M being a better draw. It'll be interesting to see how the BCS looks and how perceptions change if Florida beats Florida State.

      Thomas Goldkamp ●

    • Thomas Goldkamp said...

      I think right now a lot of the projections are just as much based on people assuming Florida will lose to Florida State as they are Texas A&M being a better draw. It'll be interesting to see how the BCS looks and how perceptions change if Florida beats Florida State.

      Spot on. I agree.

      gatordmb89 ●

    • Thomas Goldkamp said...

      When Florida beats Florida State.

      Fixed it for you

      GatorBen86

    • Thomas Goldkamp said...

      I think right now a lot of the projections are just as much based on people assuming Florida will lose to Florida State as they are Texas A&M being a better draw. It'll be interesting to see how the BCS looks and how perceptions change if Florida beats Florida State.

      This.

      If we win out I think one of those top 3 has a loss prior to bowl season so at worst we are #4 come bowl time. No way that gets past up.

      shortcbaseballa

    • I'm sure the BCS bowls haven't been enamored with the empty seats in the Swamp and unsold season tickets even during some of the conference games. A team in Texas probably has a major advantage to a team in Florida for the bowl people in Arizona, especially one that just beat the almighty Alabama.

      GboroGator ●

    • It's kinda funny to see the BCS go down in flames the last year before a playoff. Was espn really just trying to hype a projected bama Clemson sugar bowl as a great matchup? Can't wait to watch Louisville vs FSU. at the same time we'll have top ten teams playing in the cotton bowl, chickfila, capital one, and gator bowls

      fbgator ●

    • If we go o the Chik Fil A bowl it is truly a laughable system.

      97G8tr

    • Lets beat Jacksonville first...nothing is for granted with this team anymore.

      GatorJoe74

    • One thing to keep in mind, the BCS standings are designed to produce the No. 1 and No. 2 teams. Beyond that, they are irrelevant. Doesn't matter of you're No. 3 or 33, the bowls, BCS games included, will design the matchups they think are best for their respective games in terms of ticket sales, fans coming to their city and TV matchup. Doesn't matter if Florida is 11-1 and Texas A&M is 10-2, or that Florida beat A&M. Because of Manziel, and the way the Aggie fans are fired up (3,000 at the airport to greet the team this weekend), they are hands-down a better sell than Florida. And if it's the Fiesta, it's a slam dunk for A&M. Only bowl that Florida would have an edge in these departments is the Orange.

      Marty Cohen

    • Here be dem BCS rules

      http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/bcs_selection_procedures.html

      GboroGator ●

    • Marty Cohen said...

      One thing to keep in mind, the BCS standings are designed to produce the No. 1 and No. 2 teams. Beyond that, they are irrelevant. Doesn't matter of you're No. 3 or 33, the bowls, BCS games included, will design the matchups they think are best for their respective games in terms of ticket sales, fans coming to their city and TV matchup. Doesn't matter if Florida is 11-1 and Texas A&M is 10-2, or that Florida beat A&M. Because of Manziel, and the way the Aggie fans are fired up (3,000 at the airport to greet the team this weekend), they are hands-down a better sell than Florida. And if it's the Fiesta, it's a slam dunk for A&M. Only bowl that Florida would have an edge in these departments is the Orange.

      I think it is just interesting that in most years the main story is did we get the correct 1 vs 2 match up. There is still a lot of football to be played, but the odds are we likely end up with two undefeated teams or one undefeated team and a clearly superior one loss Bama team in the championship game. Not much controversy there. In fact this year (and almost every other year) the BCS system/rules, not necesarially the rankings, create some fairly poor matchups for the other games. I understand conference tie-ins are important, but the bowls do just fine weather there is a number 8 TAMU or a number 15 Oklahoma State in the game. They are going to get theirs; its the fans and probably local business who get screwed. Point is we shouldn't have to argue over which other SEC team gets into a big game. This year we may have to go out of the top 15 teams to find teams for two of the bowls.

      fbgator ●

    • Stewart Mandel points out that if we finish in the top 4, we will qualify for an automatic BCS berth. So, we need to beat FSU and hope that either Notre Dame, Kansas State or Oregon lose by enough that they fall below us. If that happens, we are in automatically according to the BCS selection process.

      http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597

      Gotham Gator

    • Gotham Gator said...

      Stewart Mandel points out that if we finish in the top 4, we will qualify for an automatic BCS berth. So, we need to beat FSU and hope that either Notre Dame, Kansas State or Oregon lose by enough that they fall below us. If that happens, we are in automatically according to the BCS selection process.

      http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597

      I would be shocked if ND beats USC. You can pencil that in as a loss right now imo.

      of course we are going to be underdogs on the road to FSU and have a ton of issues to deal with. but if we beat them, we end up no worse than #4 in the human polls (assuming Kstate, Oregon and SECCG all ahead) and we are likely in the top 3 in the computers, maybe even back to #1 computer ranking.

      again, though, tough to expect a win @FSU right now with so many guys injured and the way the offense is playing.

      Mercenary ●

    • Gotham Gator said...

      Stewart Mandel points out that if we finish in the top 4, we will qualify for an automatic BCS berth. So, we need to beat FSU and hope that either Notre Dame, Kansas State or Oregon lose by enough that they fall below us. If that happens, we are in automatically according to the BCS selection process.

      http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=4819597

      This

      Too much football left for one of those not to lose

      And we still have FSU and with the way things look now they will beat us 3-0

      Lots will happen negating everything in this thread

      shortcbaseballa

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